Reform UK Poll Surge Signals End of Two-Party Dominance, Warns Election Expert

By Elena Hargrove, Political Correspondent London, November 20, 2025 – In a seismic shift that has sent shockwaves through Westminster, a new opinion poll has catapulted Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to the forefront of British politics, eclipsing both Labour and the Conservatives in a dramatic reconfiguration of voter allegiances. Conducted by Find Out Now for LBC between November 5 and 6, the survey of 2,717 adults reveals Reform UK commanding a staggering 33% of the vote – a one-point increase from late October – while Labour slumps to a historic low of 15% and the Tories scrape by at 16%. The Liberal Democrats trail at 11%, with the Greens unexpectedly rising to 18%.

This is no mere fluctuation; it’s a clarion call for the obsolescence of Britain’s entrenched two-party system. Sir John Curtice, the revered professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and doyen of election forecasting, described the results as “a political earthquake” in an exclusive interview with The Guardian. “The old two-party system is collapsing right in front of us,” Curtice declared. “Millions of voters are walking away from the establishment for good. Farage isn’t rising quietly; he’s rewriting the map.” His words echo a growing chorus of analysts who see this poll as the harbinger of a multi-party era, potentially the most fragmented since the 1920s.

The implications are profound. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system, these figures translate to a projected landslide for Reform UK. Electoral Calculus models suggest Farage’s party could secure over 400 seats in a hypothetical general election – surpassing even Tony Blair’s 1997 triumph and rivaling the 1924 Conservative majority under Stanley Baldwin. Labour, led by Sir Keir Starmer, would be reduced to a rump of around 50 seats, while the Conservatives under Kemi Badenoch might cling to 100. The Greens and Liberal Democrats would eke out modest gains, but the real story is Reform’s dominance in the so-called “Red Wall” and “Blue Wall” constituencies alike.

What drives this insurgency? At its core is a potent cocktail of disillusionment and demographic realignment. Reform UK’s platform – unapologetically anti-immigration, skeptical of net-zero commitments, and fiercely pro-sovereignty – resonates with a broad coalition. The poll highlights a 24% defection rate from former Conservative voters, particularly among older, affluent men in the South East and rural heartlands. In the North, working-class Labour supporters, alienated by Starmer’s perceived centrism on issues like Gaza and economic stagnation, are flocking to Farage at a rate of 18%. “Voters feel betrayed by a Westminster elite that’s out of touch,” says Dr. Sofia Patel, a pollster at YouGov. “Reform positions itself as the disruptor, channeling the same populist energy that propelled Brexit.”

Farage, the 61-year-old Clacton MP and erstwhile UKIP leader, has masterfully exploited this vacuum. Since Reform’s rebranding from the Brexit Party in 2021, he has toured the country in his trademark pint in hand, railing against “open borders” and “woke nonsense.” Recent stunts, including a viral confrontation with Home Secretary Yvette Cooper over small boat crossings, have boosted his personal favorability to -27 – marginally better than Starmer’s cratering -36 and Badenoch’s -29. A separate Ipsos Mori survey last week found 37% of Britons now view Reform as the main opposition, edging out the Tories at 33%. “We’re not a protest vote; we’re the future,” Farage thundered at a rally in Birmingham last weekend, drawing crowds that rivaled Glastonbury in fervor.

Yet, this surge is not without caveats. Critics point to Reform’s internal fractures: high-profile defections, including former MP Lee Anderson’s acrimonious exit in September over “personality clashes,” have dented its organizational sheen. Funding remains a pinch point; while Farage boasts £10 million in pledges from City donors, Labour’s war chest dwarfs it at £50 million. Moreover, the Greens’ parallel rise – fueled by youth mobilization on climate and housing – siphons votes from Labour’s left flank, complicating the left-right binary.

Badenoch’s Conservatives, still licking wounds from their 2024 drubbing, face an existential crisis. Whispers of a merger with Reform persist; a YouGov poll indicates 43% of Tory members would back it, but Badenoch has rebuffed overtures, branding Farage a “snake oil salesman.” Labour, meanwhile, is in meltdown mode. Starmer’s approval ratings have nosedived amid winter fuel payment U-turns and stagnant growth at 0.8% GDP. Backbench rebellions over welfare cuts threaten his leadership, with shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves privately admitting the party is “fourth in our own backyard.”

Curtice, poring over the data in his Glasgow office, sees echoes of historical upheavals. “This mirrors the Liberal collapse of 1922 or the SDP surge in 1981 – but amplified by social media and distrust post-COVID,” he notes. The poll’s methodology, a hybrid of online and phone sampling weighted for demographics, underscores its robustness; margins of error hover at ±2%. Regionally, Reform leads in the East Midlands (38%) and Yorkshire (35%), while Labour clings to urban Scotland and Wales.

As by-elections loom in Runcorn and Helsby – a Reform target – the establishment trembles. “If this holds, 2029 could see the biggest realignment since universal suffrage,” predicts Lord Hayward, the Tory peer and forecaster. Farage, ever the showman, tweeted yesterday: “The people have spoken. Time for real change.” With turnout projections at a dismal 55%, apathy could amplify the extremes.

Britain stands at a crossroads. The two-party duopoly, forged in the fires of post-war consensus, is fracturing under globalization’s strains: migration at 1.2 million net last year, NHS waiting lists at 7.6 million, and a cost-of-living crisis that has pushed 14 million into poverty. Reform’s ascent isn’t just electoral arithmetic; it’s a referendum on the liberal order.

For Starmer and Badenoch, the path forward is treacherous. Tactical voting pacts? Policy pivots to the center? Or bold reinvention? As Curtice concludes: “The map is being redrawn, seat by seat, voter by voter. Ignore it at your peril.” In the chill of November, Westminster’s corridors buzz with the unquiet dead of old certainties. The earthquake rumbles on.